Let’s talk about Expected Goals (XG) and data within sport. There has been an unbelievable amount written about XG in recent weeks and how Aston Villa and Sunderland will revert back to the mean. Aston Villa should be in 16th place apparently. Not 3rd. Pure luck that it hasn’t happened. I just want to throw … Continue reading 197. XG and data
As the rumours continue to swirl about the Government potentially introducing new taxation measures upon gambling companies, it is important to understand unintended consequences. Whilst on the face of it taxing the betting companies more, may seem an easy win, there are so many unintended consequences to this. I have so little faith in those … Continue reading 196. Unintended consequences
I think one thing that isn’t really talked about enough in betting is the asymmetric risk between customers and the bookmakers. This is just taken as standard in the industry and it just feels incredibly exploitative. If you exclude lottery type wins (very high margin products) it is very difficult in this industry to win … Continue reading 195. Asymmetric Risk for Bookmakers
2024 provides an event that is perfect for specialisation. These are the sorts of events you should be targeting. Once every four years when the bookmakers feel obliged to offer events but really don’t want to. I am of course talking about the 2024 Olympic Games which starts on 26th July. The Olympic Games will … Continue reading 194. Specialisation (2)
I think what has been really telling in the last couple of weeks is the reaction of people to the black market situation. It is always tricky when you say you haven’t been paid by a company or they haven’t acted in an honourable manner. When making that decision to say something you are potentially … Continue reading 193. Black Markets (9)
Let’s talk more generally about my Black Market experiences. I went into it with my eyes wide open. I expected plenty of issues and they didn’t disappoint. I had a 100% strike rate of having issues with these companies. People saying what did you expect and taking great enjoyment from it. It misses the bigger … Continue reading 191. Black Markets (8)
The final bookmaker in question was Playhub Casino and their sportsbook. There was some thought behind the process in that they were essentially a skin of God Odds. They had the same software and offered the same markets. This time I didn’t run nearly as well early on and ended up depositing far more than … Continue reading 190. Black Markets (7)
The next bookmaker in question is God Odds. This is the Black Market bookmaker I have seen touted the most. I have heard it mentioned on podcasts. It’s tough to know where to even start with them. The sign up bonus was decent. £500. Was reasonable in terms of wagering requirements. The website was slick. … Continue reading 189. Black Markets (6)
The next Black Market bookmaker in question is Magicwin based out of Curacao. Their website is; https://www.magicwin.bet/en/sportsbook I have attached some screenshots (on the Twitter post) so people can be left in no doubt as to what was going on. As can be seen I deposited £4292 into the account. I withdrew £1000 and then … Continue reading 188. Black Markets (5)
So let’s start naming names and discussing the behaviours of four Black Market bookmakers. Let’s start with the gentle stuff. I originally wrote a couple of tweets about my early experiences with one; https://propunting.co.uk/2023/10/05/181-black-markets-2/ https://propunting.co.uk/2023/10/10/182-black-markets-3/ I went into quite a lot of detail to give a good idea about what was happening. The last update … Continue reading 187. Black Markets (4)
ProPunting 