There is no getting away from what a large part luck can play in the fortune of a pro punter. What I am talking about is things that happen beyond the field of play as such. Over a longer period of time variance should see that level out, although it rarely does.
I am talking about things like the timings of your big wins or the ability to maximise an account. That type of thing. I think the easiest way to show this clearly would be to use Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) as an example and the £1m big win on a sport like Golf.
Let’s assume that over a period of ten years you have an edge and that you would expect to hit the big win once over that time period. I am not talking about whether you get lucky and hit the big win more than once or not at all but when within that ten years you hit that one win. If you hit it in year 1, you are then in a very comfortable situation moving forward and there is the possibility you can increase stakes, employ other staff, buy a house or whatever else you feel like doing with that win. If you were to hit it in year 10 that’s great but there is a chance that you may not still be in the game at that point. You are also ten years behind in terms of what you wish to do with that money. There maybe a huge opportunity cost to that money.
So in this instance we end up with the same result (i.e. hitting the big £1m win) but when it occurs can drastically change our fortunes. There is a huge amount of luck when it actually happens.
To give another example. I had a golden Bet365 account. I was able to place pretty much any bet on it that I wanted. If I wanted £20k on a football match. No problem. £10/£15k on a golfer to win £100k+ no worries. It was crazy but great.
Where timings come into this is that I had two bets open on the account when it got restricted. I had Spieth to win 6 figures at the 2016 US Masters and Golden State Warriors to win the NBA Championship (£3k at 5/1).
At this point nothing I do on the account matters as the account is effectively shut. Spieth blew his enormous lead at the Masters and Golden State were matched at 1.01 in that series before they lost 4-3 to the Cavs.
Those aren’t bets you can ever place again as that account is no longer. If those bets had happened whilst the account was still active there is a good chance that I would have been able to keep placing whatever bets I wanted on the account.
This is just a small example of how luck or bad luck (beyond the field of play) can really affect the outcomes of what you do and are trying to do.
ProPunting 