Following on from Tweet 94 (Margins) it makes sense to talk about Best Price Percentages (BPP). BPP are the individual outcomes of a market added together to give an overall total for the market in question. It is expressed as a percentage.
100% is the baseline for a neutral market. If the number is under 100% then arbitrage opportunities exist. When that happens punters will be able to back all outcomes to guarantee a profit. Over 100% and that is the margin the layers (bookmakers) will be taking.
If a BPP was 110% that implies that the bookmaker has a 10% margin built into their prices. It is crucial as touched upon previously to find markets where the prices are as close to 100% as possible.
Lets take a look at how we work out the BPP in a market in real terms with practical examples. I always work out BPP using decimal odds. Its very easy to convert fractional odds into decimal odds. If something is 2/1 it is 3. 6/1 it is 7. Evens is 2. 1/2 is 1.5.
Once you have the decimal odds we do the following to find out the % each runner accounts for. Lets say it is a 3 runner market and the prices are 2,5, 2,8 and 3.2. We go (100/2.5)/100 = 0.4 so 40%. (100/2.8)/100 = 0.357 so 35.71% and (100/3.2)/100 = 0.3125 so 31.25%
We then add the three numbers together so 40+35.71+31.25 = 106.96% (BPP). So in this situation the overround on the market is 6.96%. You can do this calculation for as many outcomes as there are in a market.
The more experience you have with working out BPP the quicker you will be able to work out the numbers. It really is one of the most basic and fundamental elements to betting. If you need help there are plenty of betting calculators out there, but you should be able to do it yourself.
I will give an example of where it really helps when betting in running. If you are betting on golf and there is a playoff or about to be a playoff it can really help as a guide. Lets assume all players have the same ability and skillset. You are looking for a 100% book as a guide.
If it is a 2 man playoff you know that both players will be 2 in decimal odds. (100/2)/100 = 0.5 or 50%. So 50% for both runners. If it is a 3 man playoff it will be 3 for each player. (100/3)/100 = 0.333 – 33.33%. 4 man playoff 4 for each player. (100/4)/100 = 0.25 or 25%.
What you can then do is work off those base prices, depending on how you view the players and what is happening. You can make slight adjustments and you will never be too far away. Another interesting use of BPP is for place markets.
If a place market has 3 winners (places) then 300% is the magic number. If it has 5 winners (places) then 500% is your magic number. Many times I have seen place markets trading at less than the baseline number.
It used to happen all the time in the US Masters place markets when bookmakers would offer extra place terms. Just a quick example of where understanding BPP can pay. I cannot emphasise enough how important it is to be able to calculate BPPs.
ProPunting 