Long Term markets are always a fascinating exercise in bankroll management and the opportunity cost of that bankroll. I would start by saying that longer term markets tend to be priced up more inefficiently than matchday/raceday/tournament week markets.
They can often provide some pretty soft opportunities as the bookmakers are often very slow on the uptake with them. Let me give you a simple example. If a golfer looks like they are about to win a tournament, the bookmakers may not have updated the prices of
that said player to win one of the four majors. Similarly, bookmakers might be slow to react to things such as transfer or injury news. Its not only those examples where information is often the key to getting an edge. The bookies are just not that great at pricing them up.
It is very different pricing up relegation markets for example compared to individual match odds markets. One of them has had huge amounts of money spent on them becoming more efficient. The other hasn’t and often doesn’t attract the big syndicate money.
One big factor at this stage has to be your ability to actually place these longer term bets. If you don’t have access to online bookie accounts then it often becomes a mute point. I know of groups who will place longer term bets in shops as part of doing other runner work.
I am sure that some will also do it full time taking advantage of the soft pricing. So much of the longer term markets though are determined by your ability to get on. Lets say you can get on you then have to look at the opportunity cost of those bets and that money.
If by taking the long term bet (might be 9 months) you are impacting your bankroll significantly for the rest of the year, you really shouldn’t be getting involved. If you are placing +EV bets the rest of the year, then that money you would tie up in long term markets is better used elsewhere.
If the bankroll you use for your day to day betting isn’t impacted at all, then it makes sense to tie up additional money with nice + EV positions. It can be nice to have some variety to your betting portfolio. It’s a fine balance trying to work out what is best for your overall betting strategy.
The simple reality is that for less successful/less shrewd punters these markets can provide much better returns, than the more efficient markets. Also, be clear on what the aim with these bets are. Whether you are keeping them for the whole year or whether you will look to trade out.
You also have to remember there are no guarantees with these longer term bets. You will endure the same variance as you would with any other bets. In many respects it can be even more frustrating as you know you wont get many opportunities like these.
Long term markets can provide some nice opportunities but as always that is only half the battle. Determining whether it makes sense for you to get involved depends on so many other factors. It is also unique to everyone as their situations are different.
ProPunting 