In the second part about how ‘clean’ sports are, we will talk about officiating and how it impacts games and matches. I always think there are three aspects to poor officiating. They are either unconsciously biased (home fans/big teams), incompetent or corrupt.
Unfortunately, we have to take into account officiating in sports like football far more than we should have to. Its not just football though, where you see questionable officiating. It is rife in cricket, rugby, boxing, NFL, NBA, MLB, etc as well. Even Formula 1!
I had really hoped the introduction of VAR would have eliminated a lot of the contentious decisions that are made. However, I still see so many truly awful decisions made, even with the use of VAR that I can only conclude that the refs are either utterly incompetent or on the take.
I have never been a big one for conspiracy theories in terms of refs being bribed etc. However, some of the things you see happening, struggle to pass any sort of sniff test. Other factors to consider, are that refs are relatively poorly paid and the money at stake with each PL match is insane.
Refs are absolutely ripe for targeting by crime syndicates. Whether it be in the form of money or threats against families etc. It would be naïve to think that football and PL football in particular is exempt from those dangers. A ref can have a big impact on a game even with very subtle decisions. It maybe booking a CM early. Little niggly fouls here and there. It can have a significant impact on the game without appearing to be a major decision. Once we get to the major decisions, we see a huge impact on the game. If we say a game has on average 3 goals a match, a big decision here or there can be incredibly significant. One that sticks in the mind, was the goal disallowed for Villa in the game against Man Utd in the FA Cup earlier this year. I have never seen a VAR check like it. Where the VAR official has seemingly gone out of his way to find a reason to disallow a goal. Four minutes later and a subjective foul given and they had the outcome they wanted. It was just surreal. It was in complete contrast to normal VAR protocols. Look at the Huddersfield non penalties in the Playoff final against Forest. Crazy.
Let’s be clear. I don’t think football referees in the PL are corrupt. I think they are just grossly incompetent. However, you have to factor in that they might be corrupt. It just wouldn’t be some crazy surprise. Its not beyond the realms of possibility. It’s not 0%.
Cricket umpiring has changed significantly for the better since the introduction of the DRS system. However, the onfield umpire still has so much power in terms of influence on the game. On field decisions are huge. Its not like the sub continent in the 1980’s but it is still a big factor.
If people are sceptical about major sports and officials being bribed then look no further than NBA and ref Tim Donagy in the mid 2000s. It was interesting to hear Haralabos talk about those games and how things just didn’t add up at the time. Something was off.
The saying that if something is too good to be true, it probably is, clearly applied to those matches. I watch NBA matches these days and the refs simply have too big an influence on the outcome. It almost makes it unwatchable. Which team do they want to win today? Foul foul foul.
NFL has a similar problem in that you can almost call a foul on every play if you wanted to. When that is the case it is very easy to be both critical of the refs but also suspicious of their motives. How does this impact betting?
All the decisions (good or bad) have a huge outcome on the betting markets. Hundreds of millions can be won or lost on the decisions made. It is increasingly important that the right decisions are made. Things are improving but still so many really poor decisions are happening.
One area that you can gain an edge is by looking at referees and the tendencies that they have. I have heard stories of pros who made a living from exactly this. They were able to interpret refs and what they did, or were going to do, much better than the market could.
It always seems pretty incredible that you have the opportunity to bet directly on what a football referee does in the various bookings and cards markets. These are often some of the softer (easiest to beat) markets around.
You also just have to accept that you will be on the wrong end of plenty of poor decisions. Mentally, it can be tough to take though, especially if you are going through a poor run. Don’t forget the ones that go your way though.
Keep calm and just realise it is one of the factors out of your control (mostly) when betting. Its part of the game. If you cant handle it, pick a sport where officiating isn’t such a huge factor. Don’t be naïve though. Plenty of dodgy stuff does happen and if its too good to be true, leave it!
ProPunting 