I have alluded to the importance of patience in a few other tweets. I cannot stress enough how crucial it is to stay patient, particularly during the downswings. Its not just the downswings though, where patience is important, albeit exacerbated during those times.
I am certainly guilty at times of placing marginal bets when things are going well. You feel indestructible at times. You are running well. You are human. The reality though, is that you shouldn’t really be placing those bets if you want to maximise your long term returns.
Unless you have a good reason like Premium Charges as to why those marginal bets are ok, leave them alone if you can. Stay patient and wait for those bets with a higher Expected Value. There is nothing worse than blowing a nice win on some marginal bets that you were indifferent to.
Those are the moments when it is really highlighted to you that every bet counts. I always think of a poker analogy at this time. Think of that super tight aggressive player. Who doesn’t leak chips or just give them away. You feel like it is so difficult to prise any chips off them. Be like that.
In poker you get rewarded for creating an image that you can then later use to your benefit. It doesn’t really happen like that in sports betting. I will talk about priming accounts in a different tweet.
It is so important on the downswings to stay patient and not chase. Its where models are a huge help. The more automated the process can be (i.e. less subjective) the better your overall betting will be imo. Taking emotion out of any bet placement is a hugely positive thing.
The numbers say that this is a bet, so this is the bet we place. That’s obviously tough to do though if a judgement type of punter. Just try and be as consistent as possible. There will always be a great value bet just around the corner. Be patient. It will happen.
I have been asked before how patience and being aggressive work together. The patience is waiting for the bets that have the high +EV but when they come along make sure you are in a position to really try and take advantage of them.
That’s more of an ideal world situation, which doesn’t often happen. You may need to show some flexibility around that premise. As a general rule though the fewer bets you place (ex PC reasoning) the better off you will be. Patience is crucial to being successful.
ProPunting 