One opportunity to look out for and to try and truly understand are what I would call ‘Trading prices’. Within a market, when betting is taking place in running (on the exchanges), you can sometimes find a disconnect between what people expect to happen in a short timeframe and what people expect to happen over the complete lifespan of a market. An example or two will help to make more sense of this concept. Lets take Test cricket and the Match Odds market.
You can often find that the Match Odds market (i.e. to win over the five days) can be distorted by what traders expect to happen in the next few overs. These are players who will trade in and out of every ball/over. Prices are often offered that are correct for one situation but not both.
You normally find that they are correct for the shorter term trading situations, leaving some decent value in the longer term aspects of the market. Lets take a different example of Jordan Spieth, at the 2016 US Masters golf, in the Winner market. He had a five shot lead as he approached the 12th hole and was trading at 1.11. Longer term I would readily argue that the 1.11 was excellent value on him to win from there. From a traders perspective maybe they thought he would have bit of a wobble.
Remember they don’t have to get him beaten but if the price drifts to 1.15, 1.25, 1.5 etc, they may have been placing very successful trades, without caring about the long term outcome of whether he actually wins the tournament or not.
They are simply betting on the direction a market is most likely to move taking into account factors such as risk payoff. ‘Trading prices’ can offer some outstanding value if you know what you are looking for.
ProPunting 