This is always a slightly contentious subject and I will explain why a bit later In more detail. Nicolas Taleb has a brilliant book on the subject and it is so relevant to betting. The general premise is this; That people who don’t participate in both the downside and upside
of something don’t know what they are talking about. Simply put, if you haven’t been chastised for failure in the real world and promoted for excellence in that same real world, then you will fail to actually know how the real world works.
Betting is simply wagering on an outcome at a predetermined price (some exceptions). What you are choosing to bet on is simply your opinion on that outcome. If you are not willing to back up that opinion with ‘skin in the game’ i.e. a bet, then don’t be surprised if people question how strongly you believe in that opinion. In its purest form it is a measurement of the conviction of you beliefs. Rightly or wrongly I will always respect someone’s opinion far more if they are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
I will tell you the story about two £500 bets that I had with friends. One was when I was fairly new at Betfair and it was with Scott F in the pub after lots of drinks. He is an Aussie but wanted to back England in the cricket in the 2005 Ashes at Edgbaston. I loved the Australian team at the time and after lots of toing and froing we had a bet for £500. At the time this was about 25% of my monthly salary! We both had so much courage in our convictions that we put our money where our mouths were. That McGrath stood on the ball pre game and England won by two runs is neither here nor there! The other occasion the money didn’t matter nearly as much to me.
Dan Geraghty had been badgering me for ages about Brooks Koepka and how he was going to be the next superstar. I was a huge Rahm fan. How do you settle your differences of opinions. Have a bet.
It was who would be World Number 1 1st. Rahm had a chance at Torrey Pines to do so but then Koepka won four majors! Dan was proven right. It didn’t matter as we were willing to back our opinions with cold hard cash. Skin in the game.
Where the subject gets contentious is that I have a real problem with tipsters and other so called betting experts giving out betting advice on stuff they aren’t willing to back themselves. The problem is three fold. They don’t know the issues that punters face when trying to actually place bets in the real world. They don’t suffer the actual pain when things inevitably don’t go to plan. Finally, it leaves a lot of unanswered and unsatisfactory questions as to the motivations behind the aforementioned tipsters. If they are backing it with their hard earned then that is fine. Their intentions are clear. If they work for a publication which has affiliate deals with bookmakers where they benefit from customers losing money (revenue shares) then it becomes very murky. The intention of the tipster may well be genuine but questions will be asked.
The tipster isn’t doing the tipping for nothing. They will be paid. The publication pay them because they think it adds value to their site. How that looks only they will know. People wont like some of the answers found.
Skin in the game is such an important part of knowing how strongly held an opinion someone has. Simply put, ‘Put your money where your mouth is’!
ProPunting 