So this week the US Masters really highlights a huge problem that punters face. There are dozens of previews written by knowledgeable golf tipsters/aficionados. However, I have only seen or heard one thing this week that made me think hmm that’s interesting.
Nearly every single article is the same. It tells us all about Augusta and what the players face. They tell us all about the form of players and who will be suited by the course. For all the selections a narrative is formed around why they should be a bet/pick.
What people seem to forget is that all this information is already accounted for in the price of the player. Do you honestly think that some of the best golfing minds out there aren’t aware of these things and it not being accounted for in the price?
I guess these articles are designed to provide a quick summary for those who don’t have the time to do research. I am always amazed at how confident people are that a price is definitely wrong without the use of models etc.
The piece of information that caught my eye was from Scott Fawcett on the Bet the Process pod when he was talking about a players shot dispersion rates and why it suits left handers at Augusta. If you are right handed your misses tend to be short right or long left. If left handed the opposite is true. Take the 12th hole. If you are right handed the miss short will usually be to the right and brings the water into play. For the left hander the miss short is left where you have the bunker. The same applies to multiple other holes (2,5,9,10.12.13)
The models Rufus Peabody has suggest no discernible benefit for left handers but it is a small sample size.
I think we are seeing time and time again that Scott is ahead of the curve. You have to be thinking differently to try and find an edge that the market isn’t accounting for.
ProPunting 