One of the biggest problems football has at the moment is penalties. They are usually a completely disproportionate punishment for the offences that have taken place. Giving a bit of background on penalties helps to understand how we find ourselves in this situation. Penalties were first introduced into the game in 1891. It makes complete sense that there needed to be some deterrent from deliberately hauling a player down or deliberately handling the ball in a dangerous situation.
The problem we find ourselves in is that so much of our game is based around a rule introduced more than 130 years ago. If you were inventing the rules (laws) of football today with a blank piece of paper, you wouldn’t have the modern iteration of a penalty nor how that outcome is achieved. Data highlights the current problem with penalties brilliantly. At present a penalty is worth 0.79 XG. That implies that a penalty on average would be scored 79 times out of 100. That then varies based on the quality of both the penalty taker and goalkeeper. That is the benchmark though for what a penalty is worth. Essentially a penalty is worth eight tenths of a goal.
I don’t think people realise how hard it is to create chances within a football match that are worth 0.79 XG. Let’s look at the nine Premier League matches played so far this week. There has been five penalties awarded and four scored. In those nine games we have seen 27 goals scored including those four penalties. If you were to look at the top chances in those matches they are as follows (using FOTMOB data);
Thiago 0.9 shot, Santos 0.83 other body parts, Haaland 0.79 Pen, Gibbs White 0.79 Pen, Calvert-Lewin 0.79 Pen, Bruno 0.79 Pen, Le Fee 0.79 Missed Pen, Delap 0.67 shot, Kroupi 0.67 shot, Gomez 0.58 shot, Schade 0.57 shot, Nelson 0.44 shot, Watkins 0.43 shot, Sesko 0.42 shot. That is every shot there was with a value of 0.4 XG or higher. It is a tiny number relative to the number of chances there were in those games. There were 261 shots in those nine matches. It helps to show just how important penalties are when they are awarded.
One of the problems football has at the moment is the interpretation of what constitutes a penalty. You would expect it to have to be a major example of foul play to warrant a penalty. That simply isn’t the case and the situation has got completely out of control. There are so many subjective and inconsistent calls by the referees even with the help or hindrance of VAR. These decisions are having a huge impact on matches. Let’s look at the five penalties awarded so far this week;
Gibbs-White – Areola caught Gibbs-White in the face after the ball had been cleared by the defender. Given the ball had been cleared from any danger it doesn’t feel like the punishment came remotely close to fitting the crime.
Le Fee – Brobbey was brought down by a mistimed tackle. The player had his back to goal and it would have been a low percentage chance given the angle had he got past him. Disproportionate punishment.
Haaland – Doku cut back inside the defender near the corner of the penalty box. There was minimal contact at best. If the player hadn’t been brought down it was still a very unlikely place to score from (sub 0.2 XG). Disproportionate punishment.
Bruno – A cross is put into the box. The defender tries to jump and block the cross. It hits a defenders hand close to the edge of the box. We have no idea if Newcastle would even had a chance from the cross. Hugely disproportionate punishment.
Calvert-Lewin – A ball was knocked in towards the penalty spot. No Leeds player has the ball. The ball is handled by Thiaw under pressure from Calvert-Lewin. Hugely disproportionate punishment.
You can see from all five penalties that were awarded none of them were close to being an appropriate punishment for the crime committed. We are seeing so many games decided by these types of decisions.
I have no idea what constitutes a handball these days. I have no idea what constitutes pulling, pushing, grappling and blocking in the box. I have no idea whether contact constitutes a foul or not. What I do know is that there is little incentive for players not to cheat given the rewards are so great.
I actually feel sorry for referees as they are being put under incredible pressure in these situations, given the importance of those decisions. The inconsistency between various referees and VARs is wild. That will always lead to accusations of bias or worse.
This week isn’t an outlier. This is happening every single week. We could go back and find something similar every matchweek. Does it make the sport a better product for the fan? Not for me. It adds a lot of controversy but that doesn’t make it better.
What would be a better solution?
Maybe we have to move the penalty spot back until the chance of scoring is reflective of the foul committed. At present it is 12 yards back. Maybe it has to be moved back to 18 yards or 24 yards. Whatever that number is it will be more appropriate than the current situation.
Maybe fouls outside the six yard box but within the current 18 yard penalty box are just treated as a direct free kick (i.e Brobbey and Doku this week). Maybe it is different if brought down by the keeper/last defender. You do have the option of red cards to make the punishment appropriate.
Maybe all handballs from crosses result in an indirect free kick and a booking. Not ideal but far more appropriate than what we currently have.
Maybe the dimensions and shape of the penalty box could change. Why does it need to be so wide? Why is it a rectangle?
Maybe there are two different penalty spots depending on the foul committed. A shot handled on the line would be treated differently to fouls such as the Doku or Brobbey ones.
Whatever the solution is, it has to be a better than what we are currently witnessing. Rules from bygone eras that simply make no sense. We have the data to make far more informed decisions. Let’s use it to help the sport improve. Matches, titles and tournaments are being decided by wildly inconsistent and disproportionate punishments. We will save the archaic disciplinary system for another day.
ProPunting 