Something I have been doing increasingly in recent years across all sports is betting later and later. By that I don’t mean closer to the start point of an event but a lot more, nearer the end point of an event. Let’s look at a few different sports.
Let’s start with cricket and the Ashes yesterday. If I am placing bets pre off I am having to guess at quite a few unknowns. The most important ones being starting lineups (usually known but you do get McGrath type scenarios), the toss, how the pitch will play and the weather. I can factor in the toss but I am still having to guess what the captain who wins the toss will decide to do. You can make educated guesses but no certainties. The bigger factor is how the pitch will play. The weather can affect that hugely. Rather than trying to work out these unknowns I would much rather bet at a later stage in the match. I get to see how the pitch is actually playing. Not guessing. Is there uneven bounce, lateral movement, ball gripping in the pitch etc. Bowler speeds etc.
There will be some people who are brilliant at reading how pitches will play. They maybe there and able to see it up close. Maybe they are great at reading weather forecasts. You name it. Do you really have an edge on the market on that though?
Let’s look at Golf. These days I very rarely place any bets pre off. Ignore the taking of early prices as we will discuss that later. The single biggest factor is understanding how the course will actually play. Even more so in a major where the course hasn’t been used for many years. Look at the US Open a couple of weeks ago at Los Angeles CC. The only event there of note was a Walker Cup in 2017. We had so little information as to how it would actually play. In terms of firmness of fairways and greens. How deep the rough would be, how playable. What clubs would players be hitting.
You can do mountains of research but it is tougher than ever to uncover a gem unique to you. I always vowed that if I was to place proper bets again pre off that I would send someone to the event for every practice session. There is nothing worse than having £20/30k worth of bets pre off for them to be in tatters by lunchtime on Day 1 as the course plays nothing like you expected. Or some unexpected weather happens between bet placement and the start.
I would always much rather take my chances once I know exactly how the course will play. When I can see more reliable weather forecasts. I can see how the course has already played that day. Where the pin positions are. How players are actually swinging/playing. It may mean you miss out on some early prices and some concessions. It really depends as to how you find an edge though. For most people though I think they would be better off waiting until more information is known.
The problem of course, is that tipsters obviously all tout pre off bets. It’s what they are selling. Some will do tips later in an event but not that many. Nearly all the focus though is on pre off bets. People so often just want to get their bets on and placed.
There are other benefits to waiting such as reduced variance as the prices tend to be shorter. As affordability checks kick in that could be important for a punter. I rarely ever see that sort of thing mentioned though. Be more patient. There is no need to rush to place a bet into a market. I had one bet in the 1st Ashes match. It came with less than 5 overs to go in the match. Just be careful if betting in running to pick the right moments so you don’t get picked off.
ProPunting 