One thing that makes me laugh within betting is when a tipster or so called expert says something like ‘we backed that horse last time out’ or ‘we backed that player in the last tournament’. How frustrating that they have won this time. How unlucky are we/am I!
Each race/match/tournament is a unique event where everything is priced accordingly. Nearly all factors are generally taken into consideration. The next time they race or play it is also a completely different unique event. Stop conflating the two. Just because you liked a horse at Cheltenham where it ran no sort of race. If it then goes to Aintree where you don’t back it and it hoses up, it is so tedious to hear people say poor me. I am so unlucky. They are completely different races.
Golf tipsters in particular are so bad for it. I have backed this player three times this year but didn’t back him the week he won. You made a conscious decision not to back him this week as the parameters to that event were different to when you did decide to back him. It would have been against a different field, in different form, on a different course, in different conditions, in different weather, etc etc. A completely different event. Yet people still love to moan about it.
It highlights a bigger problem with tipsters and punters in general. They struggle to price up each event uniquely. They will just keep backing certain horses, players or teams regardless of the event that they are participating in. No concept of what a price should be or where value lies.
Let me give you an example of where the opposite is actually true. Rufus Peabody clearly had Jon Rahm shorter on his golf models for various reasons, for several months than the market. He was backing him most weeks without much joy. They were value bets according to his models. There came a time and point though where the market caught up with his models and Rahm was no longer a value play for him. So he stopped backing him every week and was taking different positions. Ironically Rahm won lots of times shortly after that. That is incidental.
The point is that every player has a price and you have to look at each situation as a unique event and place bets accordingly. Don’t fall in love with horses, players and teams you have backed previously. Be ruthlessly objective.
ProPunting 