This is always a fun (hmm) subject to talk about. Bad beats can come in a whole manner of different shapes and sizes. They are different for everybody. It maybe the worst from a probability stand point. It maybe a continued run of bad beats. It maybe because it would be a huge win. It may just be the timing within your betting journey. Everyone has a bad beat story or ten. I have had plenty of times when far more unlikely things have happened including seeing multiple 1.01’s busted in a day etc.
I used to have a running joke with a betting partner about bad beats. As something incredible happened we would always say does that even get into the top 10? He even said the other day if we wrote a book about it people wouldn’t believe it. That is just the nature of the beast. It’s very easy to forget the good breaks. That doesn’t mean you cant have more than your fair share of bad breaks though and as alluded to before when you get them that can be everything. It’s a tough old game at times.
The two that really resonate and I remember vividly were involving Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth. Let’s start with Tiger Woods at the 2013 NW Mutual World Challenge at Sherwood CC. This was still relatively early on in the pro punting journey. Much unluckier things have happened. Tiger was coming off a five win season and was playing in his own limited field event (18 players) which he had won five times before. He was on the face of it a seemingly prohibitive price pre off at 5/2. However, we were convinced it was decent value. Between bets that had been placed with a betting partner and bets placed on my own account there was well over a six figure swing between him winning and losing. The biggest bet I had ever had at this stage.
He led by 4 shots with just eight holes to go. Then it started to unravel. Zach Johnson made everything he looked at and a Tiger mistake saw them go down the 18th all level. Not ideal but this is Tiger Woods. In great form. On pretty much his home course at the time. Zach Johnson was one of the best closers around though. Anyway Zach Johnson hits his approach shot to 18 into the water . Happy days. Tiger was in the greenside bunker. Not that tough a shot. Zach then proceeds to hole his 4th shot from the fairway after taking a penalty drop. In for the par ffs. Woods got up and down easily enough for his par. On the first playoff hole Woods missed a 4ft par putt and it was all over. Zach had won and I had lost plenty. The holed wedge shot proving crucial. It was the culmination of everything from the GOAT blowing a huge lead, Zachs holed wedge shot to the biggest bet I had had. Painful.
The second one was Jordan Spieth in the 2016 US Masters. He had done me a huge favour the year before with the biggest win I had ever had. I just loved the way his game fit the course, I was a huge Spieth fan and had been since first backing him in 2013 in Houston at 60+. It’s amazing how hard it is to get the hugely talented youngsters over the line for a win before they destroy their price. Spieth like Rahm a bit later was no exception.
So we go to Augusta and he is cruising during the final round. He had just made 4 straight birdies to lead by 5 after 9. At this point he was trading at 1.09 on Betfair. He was playing so well. He then made bogies at 10 and 11 to see his lead cut to 3. Not the end of the world though as 11 in particular is a really tough hole. You are thinking of where the disasters could come on the back 9. The tee shot at 12 and approach to 15 were the only ones I was really worried about. He hit into the water on 12. Took a drop. Hit another into the water (barely made it to the water) and ended up with a quad. He now trailed Willett by 3 shots who had made birdies on 13 and 14. 5 up to 3 back in a blink of an eye. His mind was completely scrambled and he ended up finishing in 2nd place 3 shots back.
It hurt for various reasons. One I had him to win well over £200k. It would have been close to the win I had the previous year on him. Secondly, I had him for £100k of that on a golden Bet365 account that had been closed effectively before this event. Given the outcome would make no difference to the status of the account I wanted Bet365 to suffer. The other outstanding bet on the account hit 1.01 and lost as well. Thirdly, I knew quite a few people who were on him. I don’t like giving tips generally for these sorts of reasons. Finally, he is one of the few genuinely nice guys in professional sports and this could potentially ruin someone and their career.
He still remains the player I have staked the most money on over the years and also the most profitable player to boot despite what happened. Still at the time it really hurt. You question everything you did. They say these things equal out in the long run. They don’t.
The best/worst bad beat story I know not involving myself but by a very close friend is one I will save for a different day. Maybe one day he will want to tell it himself on Twitter. I will find out. In the meantime let’s hear some of the ones most impactful to you.
ProPunting 