Whilst watching the Pakistan vs England Test Match I was continually struck by how utterly pointless so many of the statistics used In Test Cricket these days are. Whilst factually correct they hold so little relevance to what we are seeing before our eyes.
The one that stuck out more than others, was that if England had lost, and Pakistan were favourites on that final day at various points, then England would have set the unwanted record of having the highest first innings total, in a match and then gone on and lost (657 runs). The way it was talked about made it sound as if this would be an incredible failure by England if they gained this unwanted record. The reality could not have been further from the truth. Nearly every Test Match team statistic is irrelevant beyond the last ten years or so. Yes those stats have context to what others did in those previous eras but not so much now.
The game has completely changed as shown by England scoring their runs at 6.73 runs per over (RPO) throughout the whole Test match. The highest ever for two completed innings. It wasn’t just a case of scoring 300/400 runs but 921 at that pace. Utterly absurd and a genuinely game changing approach. Ultimately England won and their bravery and skills throughout the whole match were rewarded. Fine margins because had they lost they were unwanted record breakers. To put into some context when England beat Pakistan in Karachi in 2000 the match run rate was 2.62 RPO. Even in this Test Pakistan went at 3.36 RPO. This is just a very different game and approach England are taking.
Sport is always about incredibly fine margins and none more so than in a game like this. The margins between genius and madness are often paper thin. I just loved that such fearless captaincy was rewarded so spectacularly. Not being afraid to lose in order to win. Sport is about entertainment and I think it often gets forgotten about. Stokes and McCullum want to entertain and boy are they doing that. It is incredible stuff and could well be the saving of the longer version of the game.
This type of stat is just the tip of the iceberg though. We see it all the time when it comes to final day/innings run chases despite the game being played under completely different circumstances. Different pitches, players, conditions, balls, bats, etc. Let’s take something like Lords. The highest run chase there ever was 344/1 by the West Indies in 1984. That team had the likes of Haynes, Greenidge, Richards, Lloyd and Marshall. How does that have any relevance to a team chasing down 344 today? It doesn’t.
Where it gets really interesting is that Test cricket becomes a very difficult sport for those modelling it, to do so, using historical data. There simply isnt enough relevant data. There has only ever been 2478 Test matches in total since 1877. It means that out of all the major sports it is probably the sport with the least efficient main markets. It’s where you need a really deep understanding of the sport and its various nuances rather than just relying on stats.
Understand the context of historical statistics. How relevant they are or not. Whether others are forming opinions or making judgements using data that is largely obsolete. Sports continue to evolve and this is another good example.
ProPunting 