I have talked about downswings and variance before. I thought I would give a real life example to put it into some perspective. This involves one of the most successful people I know in the betting space. A big winner and has been for more years than I can remember.
He has been doing NFL for a while now and knows he has an edge on it. Its not Moneyline, Point Spreads or Totals. Wont beat those. I will not reveal which markets to protect his anonymity. However, this season literally everything that could go wrong for him has gone wrong. It’s fascinating to me to see someone so successful get so frustrated by the vagaries of variance. He knows that it will be fine in the long run. He has a huge bankroll. He knows he has to just keep repeating the processes that are getting him into these positions.
Despite that, living through the variance, can be nothing short of a nightmare. The frustrations as another seemingly great position is squandered time and time again. Things that have hardly even been seen in the game before keep happening. I have so many messages from this season from him berating his bad fortune. You wont believe what happened…Yep and again….Of course I was on X…..etc. He is someone who rarely shows emotion about betting and outcomes. Variance can make you question your sanity.
The frustrations are magnified somewhat by the fact it involves incredible commitment every Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. I know from personal experience that there is nothing worse than putting the crazy hours in and not get rewarded for it. One of the most interesting aspects is that this is an incredibly manual process for him. Very little in the way of automation. Most of his other work at the moment is automated. When automated you don’t worry about the swings in the same way.
When I asked him what frustrates him most about it. He said he just wants to be proven right and that it is likely now 18 months before that can happen. This season is almost halfway through and pretty much a write off. You cannot force it and get it back in one go. The single biggest takeaway for me is simply that even the best, most experienced punters, suffer with the mental strains that downswings and variance can put on you. It is a brutally tough part of the game. This is real life. This isn’t some fantasy land of paper trades.
Joseph Buchdahl does some really interesting work looking at variance and losing streaks. What you can expect. Whilst it can help you prepare for it somewhat from an expectation point of view, nothing prepares you for the real thing and seeing how it affects you and others.
ProPunting 