129. Narratives (2b)

The answer is obviously Nottingham Forest to win the Premier League. At present you can get them at 1000 on Betfair (the biggest they can be) or 5000/1 at some bookies. A HUGE price. Honestly, those prices are on the short side. 

The point is that through the manipulation of information and data we can make something as utterly ridiculous as Nottingham Forest winning the Premier League almost sound realistic. I obviously left out crucial information and cherry picked others to make a case. 

The other point is that all that information is in the public domain and will be known by most. The only thing I had to check was them winning 10 games in 12. I knew they had gone on a good run but wasn’t sure of the exact numbers.  All that information is already accounted for in the price.

The next time you see a tipster put out their selections ask yourself is there really anything there the market doesn’t know? Anything other than justifying a selection through narratives?

You have to be aware this manipulation of data and narrative isn’t just limited to the betting world. It is everywhere, everyday. The media are very guilty of it. As Twain said; “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

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