I have always thought staking and staking plans to be one of the more overrated factors when it comes to being successful at betting. That’s not to say that if you absolutely butcher it that it wont be a potential game changer. So much attention is given to it though. Relatively.
I think as long as you get the basics right it will generally take care of itself. The starting point is making sure that you are not risking too much of your bank on any single position. Variance is a huge problem and you have to account for it. The downturns will be brutal. You have to get the balance right between being aggressive but not jeopardising your bankroll if you end up on the inevitable bad run. I talked about it in Tweet 33. You have to stay in the game at all costs.
From a maths perspective and for optimal bankroll growth then we should be using a version of the Kelly Criterion staking plan. There are variations of it such as the half Kelly or other fractional Kelly’s. I have used Kelly at various points but just dont like it. There are a few problems I find with it. Certainly using Full Kelly I find it is overly aggressive and it is very easy for a bad run to wipe you out. It also relies on you knowing exactly what edge you have. That’s not always easy to calculate. If you are guessing, then it feels like it defeats the purpose somewhat. Also, if you are placing large numbers of bets it is incredibly painful to continually work out on the fly. I also found that with football it makes your bets really stand out with bookies. Anytime you bet in funny amounts, they think you arbing or something similar and puts your account in danger of being limited very quickly.
I find the staking plan I use really depends upon the sport and bankroll. For golf bets pre off, I used to bet to win a certain amount. At times on the exchange that may have been to win £100k or if each way bets in shops/online it may have been £50k. Those numbers are not always achievable so the stakes you pick have to be achievable and realistic. What you don’t want is to just get big positions on something, someone else, wants you to have. That’s never a good position to be in.
The number I would aim to win would change but only once a whole series of factors had been taken into account. I would rarely do this in the middle of a season and would really analyse it at the end of each year/season. It then helps to try and not make the process too results orientated.
It also leaves the scope for if I really like something to be able to double the win takeout or more. You want to have that flexibility as not all bets are the same. You have to be placing bigger bets on the bets you like more.
Over time you tend to find something that you are most comfortable with. Something that helps to provide consistency. One thing that is worth pointing out at this stage is that all the tipsters and other so called experts advocate a different staking system. They will say something like 3pts win @ 12/1 and 1pt each way @ 80/1. Real life feels very different. Lets say you had £1000 per pt. The £3k at 12/1 might not feel unreasonable. Try placing £1k EW at 80/1 to start with let alone going through the swings and variance that involves. They have no idea what edge they have. They are just guessing. Purely paper profits/losses in the end.
If I am trading in running I am lucky to be able to shift money between sub accounts on Betfair. It means I can have say £5k or £10k in an account for an event. What you don’t want is all of your bankroll in there in case you make an error. It does happen.
Staking is really about finding a solution that suits you as an individual (everyone will be different) that protects your bankroll but lets you try and maximise opportunities when they arise. As always you need to be placing +EV bets or it wont matter what and how you stake.
ProPunting 