One thing I am seeing continually at the moment is a huge disconnect between short and long term goals. It applies to so many different walks of life. I see it all the time in sport but we are also seeing it incessantly in Politics and Finance.
A good starting point with this would be the huge conflicts between short term and long term policy, the Government and the way they are dealing with the current energy crisis. It is clear for all to see, that Liz Truss is willing to do pretty much anything, to be in power again after the next Election. That is in two years time and the majority of the decisions she will make will be with that self serving goal in mind. Conversely, it is clear for everyone to see that the UK needs to come up with a coherent longer term plan to tackle this particular crisis. A Government bailout of over £100bn is incredibly short term thinking. We all know a longer term solution is clearly the better option but as a society we have become indoctrinated to the need for instant results. People are incentivised completely wrongly to achieve optimal results.
Lets look at sport as I see it happen there all the time. There is so often a huge disconnect between a manager/coach and the club. The manager is only interested in keeping their job and achieving short term success. Often at the expense of the teams/clubs long term success. The natural starting point with this is some of the American sports where traditionally teams have been rewarded for tanking (losing).
This is still the case with the NFL where the team with the worst record is rewarded with the number 1 draft pick. There was a high profile situation recently with Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores where he said that the Miami Dolphins ownership offered him a $100k bonus for every game they lost. They wanted the higher draft picks. That went against what he believed in as a coach. It just shows the huge disconnect between long and short term goals within an organisation.
The NBA has addressed the issue a little in that the worst team is no longer guaranteed the top draft pick. They have a lottery where the worst team has a 14% chance of the number 1 pick and is guaranteed a pick in the top 5. Essentially every team that didn’t make the playoffs (14 in total) has a chance at the number 1 pick with the chances ranging from 14% to 0.5%. Whilst not completely eliminating tanking it has to be seen as a positive move for league integrity.
You see it in Football all the time, although instead of draft picks you are often talking about prize money. In the Premier League in 2021/2022 you were talking about £2.2m per place in the table. Lets take the situation Aston Villa and Steven Gerrard found themselves in last year. The manager was relatively new and had made a good start almost ensuring that relegation wasn’t going to be an issue. The reality though, was that European football (top 7) was also highly unlikely. With little to really play for apart from prize money, Gerrard and Villa had the chance to blood more of their highly promising youngsters. However, Gerrard decided that the short term goals were of greater importance. He put getting wins in the short term (trying to establish himself as a PL manager and keeping his job) ahead of what was potentially best for the club longer term. He had the chance to play the likes of Carney Chukwuemeka and Tim Iroegbunam far more than he ended up doing so. He will argue that they weren’t ready and didn’t deserve to get into the team on merit. If you have the chance (dictated to by the Premier League table) to give some very good youngsters a chance, you should always take it. Their improvements will likely be at an accelerated rate over other opportunities they may get (like loan moves), you will find out pretty quickly whether you have players genuinely capable of holding their own at PL level, you may unearth a superstar and finally it sends the message that you are willing to give youth players the opportunity to make it to the top at the club (huge impact on recruiting the future generations). What transpired was that both players got a few minutes here and there. Villa finished the season horribly with 2 wins in the last 12 matches (both over relegated teams). More importantly was that Chukwuemeka who led England to European U19 glory, refused to sign a new contract and was eventually sold to Chelsea for upwards of £20m. Had Gerrard given him the opportunity he should have with regard to playing time, then it is likely he would still be at Villa and they would have one of the most highly sought youngsters in World football. Who knows how it would have played out but in the end Villa suffered the short and long term consequences of Gerrard’s short term decision making.
In contrast, Arsenal and Mikel Arteta found themselves in a slightly different situation with regard to Aubameyang and their quest to finish in the top 4 last season. Arsenal were lacking strikers and goals yet took the decision they believed was best for the club long term. Arsenal somehow got Aubameyang to tear up his contract and he was free to join Barcelona. They were willing to take the short term hit (top 4) to do what was right for the club in the long term. They were willing to back Arteta and the cultural changes he was making at the club. They were also fortunate to get rid of the albatross that was Aubameyang’s £350k a week contract. As it transpired Arsenal just missed out on a top 4 place (Aubameyang may have made a difference. Who knows). However, going forward they look in a much stronger position for making that tough decision. The long term thinking will surely be rewarded and is unusual in football these days.
How does this all relate to betting for a living? There are two main aspects. Firstly, it is always incredibly important to factor in all the various motivations of players, coaches and teams when placing bets. Understand long and short term motivations. They are not always what you would expect. Most are accounted for in the price but not always. You often see a team over bet because they have to win for example.
Secondly and more importantly when you are a pro punter or thinking about becoming one, you have to almost treat yourself like a small business. You only have so many resources (time is often the most important) and how you utilise these resources will go a long way to determining how successful you will be. Where it gets tricky is that it is very easy to always think in the short term and potentially take easy options. In reality, if you intend to stay in this game for a long time you have to sometimes forgo the easier short term options and concentrate on what will generate great returns in the longer term. This is always much easier said then done. Its where it is often more important to focus on skill sets rather than actually placing bets. Its tough to leave money on the table though. Think long term.
There are other aspects to it with regard to betting. From a practical point of view it might be worth saving an account for a different day. It might be making sure you are trustworthy and not hammer a price if you are given a nod and a wink about one. Lots of decisions to make.
I am often asked why do I bother doing the 100+ tweets on Twitter. It seems like a lot of effort. In the short term I would tend to agree as it can take a fair bit of effort and is often a thankless task. Could my time be better spent elsewhere? It’s difficult to know for certain. However, I remain convinced that in the longer term it is the right thing to do. I have no idea what direction doing them will take me in apart from massively increasing opportunities further down the line.
In summary, understand that there are often huge conflicts between short and long term objectives in so many walks of life. If you can, always try and focus on the longer term objectives, as they will be far more optimal in the long run. Its not easy though as everyone is incentivised differently.
ProPunting 