The NFL is one of my favourite sports and it resumes later this evening with the Bills and the Rams. Following on from yesterday it serves no one any real purpose to come up with narratives for what will happen. Instead I will give a few pointers though about betting on the sport more generally. I will break it down to a few things pre off and then some factors to consider when betting in running.
Firstly, pre off, if you are betting just before the start of the match it is highly unlikely you will win long term. These markets are incredibly efficient. They are comparable to Premier League football. Huge resources have been spent to ensure they are as efficient as possible. The good news is that you can place bets several days in advance with decent enough limits. It is still very tough to beat though.
You have to shop around for the best prices. This is so obvious and is the same for every sport. In NFL the 3pt and 7pt handicap lines are so important. That is because of the scoring system. To give you an appreciation why these numbers are so important. In the NFL 3pts is the winning margin about 14.5% of the time. 7pts about 9% of the time. 10pts about 5.5%. 14pts 4.8%. The permutations involving 3 and 7 pts are the most likely outcomes. This has changed a little bit in recent times as teams attempt more 2pt conversions. However, you have to be super diligent in terms of getting the best handicap numbers especially around the 3 and 7pt marks.
Avoid doing accas and teasers! It feels inconceivable to me that you will have an edge on NFL let alone on multiple games.
Player props have taken off hugely in recent years. As a general rule there is always much better value in going with unders for these bets. The overs on these always feel incredibly muggy. Go against the crowd.
One area you maybe able to get an edge is with injury news. That’s only if you are getting the news before the markets react though. It has to be completely unexpected though. Some bookies are slow to react. A top QB being injured can have a huge impact on the prices.
When betting in running the starting point as always is understanding how delayed the pictures you are watching are. Then understanding the delays from when you place a bet to the bet either hitting the exchange or a bookie accepting or declining your bet. If you are unsure about these things make sure you only place bets when there is a decent window where nothing is happening. At the end of a drive or end of a quarter etc. Do not get picked off. Do not let the bookie take advantage of you. This has to be balanced though by the realisation that the sooner you place bets the less accurate the market is likely to be. As the market settles down it will get more efficient as what has happened will be more accurately factored into the prices.
You have to understand the vagaries of the rules. Things like exactly what happens if the game goes to overtime. It differs between regular and postseason. In reg season both teams will have at least one possession, unless the team that gets the ball first, scores a touchdown on its first drive. Realise that in overtime no extra point conversions happen.
Understand that injuries can play a huge part in the outcome of a match. NFL is a brutal sport. The key part is understanding the drop off between the player injured and the replacement player. Its not just the obvious injuries like quarterbacks. With QBs if the first choice QB is elite then the drop off will be large. If it is a marginal QB the drop off not huge. Lets take Green Bay and Seattle as examples. The drop-off between Rodgers and Love is enormous. The drop-off between Smith and Lock is not huge. Running backs are often some of the bigger names in the game. However, whilst there maybe some drop off, often the back ups aren’t that far behind. Lets take Dalvin Cook at Minnesota. Someone frequently injured. Cook would be widely regarded as a top 5 RB. His replacement is Mattison. Whilst Mattison is not on the same level as Cook, Mattison can do a more than adequate job of filling in. Don’t overreact to injuries to RBs. The more important injuries can be to those positions in the offensive line protecting the QB or creating lanes for RBs. That’s particularly the case if a team is already dealing with injury issues. The key position is Left Tackle as they protect the QBs blindside. Injuries to these players can have a huge impact on the game and people often don’t appreciate just how important they are.
Get an appreciation for the officiating crew. Are they throwing flags all over the place or letting them play?
Understand the impact of the weather on a game. So the weather forecast will be factored into the pre off prices. Is it worse than expected? Better? Also understand things like wind speed and wind direction. Whether the game is indoors or outdoors. Are they playing on turf? Understand the impact it will have on Field Goals. As a general rule you can add on 17 yards to where a team is for where a FG will be attempted from. Just like golf and understanding the numbers when it comes to how often a player holes a putt from a certain distance. Understand the maths behind FGs. Make adjustments for weather, field and kicker.
Make sure you shop around if playing in running. Not just pre off. Again with handicaps tread very carefully around 3 and 7pt handicap numbers.
Understand that game score will often influence how a team will play. If a team has a lead they are more likely to run the ball to run time off the clock. If a team is chasing then they will likely play hurry up offense and throw almost non stop. Understand how timeouts and the clock works towards the end of a half or the end of the match. It can make an enormous difference as to whether a team will get the ball back and potentially have another possession. Understand that 2pt conversions have increased hugely as the game is dragged into the analytics era.
Understand that teams may rest starters towards the latter stages of a match if very lopsided. Teams are generally very poor at doing this. They should take them out much earlier. This can have a huge impact on handicap markets.
These are just a few pointers off the top of my head. It’s a great sport. There are so many great games every season. There are plenty of intricacies to it though. Understand those you are betting against will have some pretty insane knowledge. Go against the masses if you can. It’s a very tough sport to beat. Give yourself a chance though.
ProPunting 