I see and hear so often people explaining why they think a bet is good value. This is something that you see with tipsters, literally, all the time and anyone who is trying to justify a selection. They create a narrative to justify the selection. They will say something like, this golfer has had four top 20 finishes in a row so is coming into form. Or this horse likes this type of ground as he has won on heavy ground before. Or this NFL receiver has 100 yds catching in 10 out of 13 games so far this year.
Often the narrative will be fluffed up with an incredibly selective use of statistics to justify the selection. The golfer may have four top 20 finishes in a row. He may also not have had a top 15 finish in those four finishes. He may have had four top 20 finishes in his last 20 starts. People will always try and sell a story or narrative. This is something that is used by tipsters and pundits alike non stop. Look at me I am so smart knowing these incredible facts that justify me picking this particular selection.
However, the problems are two fold. The statistics/narrative that gets used will have almost no context for what they are trying to prove. Lets take something like the NFL Wide Receiver given it starts again tomorrow evening. 100 yds receiving in 10 of 13 games this season. Those numbers don’t account for things like the weather, how dominant a team will be (more likely to throw if behind etc), how much pressure the QB will be under, how good the cornerbacks and safeties are, other matchups involving offensive/defensive lines, injuries, officiating, etc. Literally there may have been hundreds of variables that have gone into the numbers that will vary each time. Its why the statistics quoted are utterly meaningless. Literally they are just there to guide a narrative. Sell a pick.
The second problem is that people are always quoting statistics or creating narratives that are widely known and already used to generate prices. It blows my mind that people don’t think that almost any stat or angle they come up with isn’t already factored into the price. Literally read or listen to any betting preview. They are all just statistic after statistic that are widely known or accounted for in the price. It is incredibly rare these days to find little nuggets not accounted for in a market. That’s particularly true in the social media era where info is king. Its amazing how often I will hear someone who is clearly intelligent and has a deep understanding of a sport say I think this is a good bet because of this commonly known piece of information. Think differently. Get away from narratives.
ProPunting 